If Windows Phone 7 numbers are silly then Android and iPhone numbers are crap

One of the subjects that Paul and I were talking about in today’s Daily Brief; before Skype went totally tits-up (and still is), was the fuss being raised around the released numbers for Windows Phone 7 Sales.

At this point the number being floated around is 1.5 million Windows Phone 7 handsets being sold, which of course has brought out all the naysayers and otherwise stupid posts (yes Scoble I am looking at you). Mary Jo Foley in her typical fashion did her best to present an even keel post on the numbers but it was a post by the team at WMPoweruser caught my eye.

The reason it caught my eye is because it raises a point that I have continually wondered about; and that being the incredible numbers being bragged about when it come to Android and iPhone.

Contrast this to how most of the same sites gleefully reported, and continue to report the 40,000 sales number by thestreet.com, as a sign of doom for the OS. Come to think of it, how come nobody ever questions Android’s highly touted 300,000 daily activations? This means that every month, there are (300000*30) 9 million newly activated Android devices or 27 million every quarter. Is there any independent data source that corroborates this other than Google? Same can be said about the iPhone’s 230,000 daily activations.

As Paul pointed out; before Skype puked on us, that going by these numbers it means that 200 million + people are activating smartphones per year. Which means that over the life-cycle of 3 to 4 years means some 600 million Android and iPhone smartphones have been sold and activated.

Seriously … 600 million?

Who are these 530,000 people activating new smartphones each and every day?

Who is coming up with these numbers? Which independent company is the one keeping track of all these sales .. where is the actual third party verifiable data that these android and iPhone numbers are valid by any stretch of the imagination.

If the tech pundits are so willing to question the veracity Windows Phone 7 sales, or distribution, numbers why isn’t there the same transparency when it comes to numbers being bandied by Android and Apple.

Not to mention – where is the logic or common sense to question the absolutely silliness of these numbers?

23 thoughts on “If Windows Phone 7 numbers are silly then Android and iPhone numbers are crap”

  1. Oh my god.. You guys really are desperate. “we hate the facts, so instead of admitting defeat, simply deny the facts because we are sore losers”… That is all anyone is going to take away from this useless article.

    1. how the hell is questioning the validity of *any companies* numbers considered to be separate. Show me a company without any vested interested in the results that can prove without any question that 300,000 Androids are being activated daily or that 230,000 iPhones are being activated daily.

      Who is making those 540,000 daily activation a value that can be trusted and considered “Fact”.

      The whole job of tech writers is to question what is suppose to be fact and I’m sorry 540,000 activations (Android/iPhone) daily .. 365 days a year – which amounts to 197,100,000 activations a year; or in another way more than half of the entire US population (310,919,000) is activating a new smartphone every years.

      If you think that asking questions about the veracity of those numbers is wrong then go and refresh you glass of kool-aid

      Who is providing those numbers, AT&T, Apple, Google .. their interpretation of numbers is supposedly considered “cleaner” and more trusted

      1. I’ve always thought those numbers seemed a little high… I really would like to see some more proof because yes, more activations then half of the entire US population yet I barely see more then 1 in 30 people around me buy a new phone recently, even less have a smart phone, and this is Christmas. I have no idea where all these people would be coming from. You’d also think that you would start to see a decline unless people are now buying more then one smart phone?

    2. Facts ? What facts is he supposed to hate ?
      Apple told their analysts call in that from Jan-March 2010 they sold 8.75 million iPhones, which is a little under 100K per day, and total sales from Oct 2007 to April 2008 where 50Million. Yet people are quoting a 230K per day, which is 83 million per year.

      Android is supposed to be activating 300K a day ?
      When studies say it has 1/3 of Apple’s Market share

      Microsoft had SIXTY carriers signed up for WP7 and the phone makers got 1.5M units out of the doors in the first 6 weeks. 25,000 per carrier. That’s pathetic.

  2. All blogs are run by pathethic fanboys that maks their “articles” as objetive information but in reality every steve jobs loving hipster(eng, giz, etc.) hates microsoft and takes any chance to hit it with anything.
    You just have to watch their blogs and see how the make 1000 articles about nothing but bullshit (white iphone, stupid apps, stupid cases, etc.)

    1. let’s be fair, not all bloggers are fanbois of either ilk. Some do in fact try to be fair – hell I’ve even said nice things about Apple and Google just as I have been hard on Microsoft when I feel it is needed. It’s called fairness.

    1. Yep, which makes the numbers even more odd. Are those “activations” totally new customers or upgrades? The companies won’t tell us.

    2. This is the same type of bullshit when it comes to download numbers for software. How many times have you downloaded on version and then another, or even downloaded something yet never used it. And these are all aggregated together as some fantastic number of installed programs or apps. Numbers are bullshit.Period.

  3. Hate to burst your bubble, but the numbers being reported by Google for Android based activations and Apple’s iOS activations are a point in time, not for the entire lifespan of the product. Android is probably getting 300k activations daily — but they didn’t last year, or even two years ago.

    You also have to realize that Verizon, the US’s largest cellular vendor is pushing the Android based phones as their flagship products. That means most people leaving one of their stores will end up with and Android based phone. The same with T-Mobile and Sprint. AT&T sees their Apple lineup as their flagship, so they push most customers there.

    And yes, at the point of Android’s life where WinMo7 is at now, there were ‘thousands’ of activations per day. But the Smartphone world was much different two years ago. If you wanted a non-Windows, non-RIM based phone back then you had very little options — TMO or one of the off-carriers were ususally all you had to choose from.

  4. Wow is this stupid. Comments about US vs worldwide show ignorance of the numbers reported by MS. Anyone thought to check how many total activations per provider worldwide, regardless of phone? I know to never read this website again, based on this article.

  5. Okay, so if this post is about calling out bad numbers, let’s start with yours. Units moved into the channel simply cannot be called sales (which you did), nor can they be compared with end-customer activations (regardless of the accuracy of the activation numbers, and which you also did.)

    Lets just call a spade a spade, shall we. When Microsoft was asked for numbers they first declined to provide any. Then, instead of directly responding to the sales estimates that were floating around, they responsed with a carefully-worded blurb that actually just stated the number of units in the channel. If they had good sales numbers to report, they would have. That they haven’t means they don’t.

    Now, don’t get me wrong, I am not some Microsoft hater. I have enjoyed earning my living primarily off Microsoft technology for more than fifteen years and I plan to keep using and enjoying Microsoft products both personally and professionally.

    I can be honest, though, and state that the WP7 hype exists entirely and only within the community of Microsoft pundits (and especially those Silverlight developers looking for something interesting to do, all of whom have been foaming at the mouth and going on and on about the supposed impending WP7 app gold rush for months and months and months now.) The general public has no idea what WP7 is, just like they had no idea what WM6 was before it was left to languish, just like they had no idea what WM6.5 was before it was basically left dying on the vine, and just like they really had no idea what Danger was up to between being acquired and being all but nuked from orbit. Now we are supposed to believe that WP7 is doing well when even Microsoft won’t provide end-customer sales numbers?!?! I am pretty sure I have sold more bridges than Microsoft has sold phones. Interested in a bridge for sale? :)

  6. Well, say what you like, stick with your pipe dream, but the fact is, quarterly profits statements don’t lie. See how much MS is actually posting as earnings with their Mobile division compared to Apple, Google and RIM.

    Unites in the retail pipeline do not count as sales, as the reports will show. You can inflate numbers all you want, but the fact is, only Windows developers are fanboys… the average Windows user could care less about the company itself… they float like the wind from one product to another because unlike RIM and Apple, who deal customer loyalty with a community of supporters that tend to stick with their products, Microsoft simply owns market share based upon MASS amounts of companies flooding the market with cheap hardware running Windows OS, so what computer do you think the average user is going to buy?

    But when it comes to the Smart Phone market, you are not talking about the average user that can afford a cheap desktop PC, but rather this is their daily phone, and most of them are not going to take a chance with something from the mass market machine Microsoft.

    Just simple facts… the numbers are what they are because there is no customer loyalty with Microsoft beyond the .NET/Silverlight development crowd, and most of those are developers for Windows primarily because their computers were so cheap, they couldn’t afford a Mac at the time they started developing, and besides, prior to OS X, Mac was not worth developing for or even using, so nobody can blame them for going with Microsoft at that time.

    Simply put, the mass market machine known as Microsoft was never going to really dominate the current cell phone market, because although they have the market share in computers, even their own users know they are cheap and wouldn’t take a chance of being in the middle of an emergency and hoping to GOD that their phone didn’t blue screen when they called 911… LOL

  7. Well, at least Apple have to report every unit sold. Last quarter(ending September 30) they sold 14,1 Million iPhones. So 14,1 Mil/90 = 156 666. 156 666 iPones sold per day. To that you must add iPod Touch and iPad and you will probably have an even higher number than the 230 000 iOS devices that Steve Jobs where talking about. So nothing strange about Apples figues.

    It is harder to count the Android unit count, but 300 000 sounds reasonable.

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