4
May

Stowe Boyd’s Future OS - reading the tea leaves

Posted by Steven Hodson in Sunday, May 4th 2008      

Reading the tea leaves Back on April 21st Stowe Boyd had an interesting post about what he thought a future operating system should be which caught my attention and that I have gone back to a few times since then. In his usual style Stowe gives a good balance opinion of why operating systems; both Windows and Mac, have to change to something that is truly web centric.

While I agree with his premise that the monolithic operating systems like Vista needs to be taken out back of the woodshed and put out of its misery I don’t necessarily agree with him about some other points he made. Nor do I agree that a “webfooted” operating system is the answer either. The idea of a strictly web based operating system isn’t something that we will see because of one simple thing - connectivity.

What a lot of people in the social media and the Web 2.0 communities in general keep forgetting is that they are among a privileged few when compared to the rest of the world outside of US metropolitan areas. Sure they have their handy dandy EVDO cards or some other form of wired and wireless broadband access that lets them play on the internet 24.7/365 but there is an even larger portion of the world’s population that doesn’t and probably won’t for a very long time - if ever.

I add if ever because there will always be a section of society that lives on the wrong side of the growing technological divide due to the fact that they don’t have the financial resources to be a part of this. Not only does things like broadband access; or access of any kind, cost real dollars so does the equipment whether it be a laptop, cell phone or desktop solution. I know this reality all to well unlike the digerati of Web 2.0 who sometimes seem to live in a dream world where everyone can afford the tools needed to be included in this new world.

As I said though I do agree with him that operating systems desperately need to be re-evaluated and I think that Microsoft regardless of their apparent love of the corporate pocket book is in the process of doing this. Recently I wrote a post where I suggested that this is the road Microsoft will be going down when Windows 7 comes to market.

The one other point in Stowe’s post that I just don’t see happening is the idea of a local file store going away

The local file store is going away. I move all my photos to Flickr, as soon as I can. My documents — to the extent that I actually create Word or PPT style documents anymore — reside on Google or Zoho. Increasingly, the writing that I create and share with others has been created and presented through web applications, like Typepad (my blogging platform), or SlideRocket (presentations), Zoho, or Google. In essence I have come to treat the file store on my Mac as a local cache — temporary storage of the active docs I am working on or reviewing — but where the primary version is stored in the cloud.

Where I have a problem believing that this is a viable route for data storage to go is multi-layered. As with the idea of a webfooted operating system the underlying need to be able to have unlimited access to uncapped broadband is paramount. However with net providers looking for ways to constantly increase their profits we hear about them looking to implement things like data caps or trying to make net neutrality a thing of our dreams.

Along with that is the increasing push of video that is seeing everything from televisions shows to movies becoming heading our way down these broadband pipes. AS media companies look to downloadable video as the next big economic model for their businesses there has to be some place on our computers; or other electronic devices, to store those files. It would make absolutely no sense to first download them from the provider and then upload them back to the net to one of our storage silos in the cloud.

Will we see a change come to the operating systems we use on a daily basis? I think we will but whether it will be of the type that Stowe foresees isn’t something that I think will happen regardless of the technology that might be available to pull it off. I believe that we will always have; or for as long as broadband access isn’t available to everyone in our society, an operating system that will treat the web as a secondary input source.

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under: The Desktop, The Social Web, The Web    

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    This is actually one of the things that most annoys me about computers today. Sure, 88% of Icelanders above the age of 14 have high-speed ADSL lines and use them daily, but what about people in such small countries as China? Those very few souls that use the internet there may not be a "relevant" market, but if someone took the time to think about the fact that the government there controls what they can or can not see on the internet, they might think to themselves that web-based applications will only be conceivable in relatively rich countries.. which excludes about 70% of the rest of the world.

    Hell, think about Cuba, which were just the other day allowed for the first time ever to SELL COMPUTERS to people. Yes... Cubans may now own a computer! Common Internet access? Naw, they'll probably not see that one for another 10-15 years.

    Web-based operating systems.. what a brilliant idea!
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    My opinion for the next OS is similar to Stowes... its going to be moving to a mobile cell phone based model. While the handset makers are creating more powerful and more feature rich devices, its not the first world that is going to be behind the next revolution in computing.
    M$ should create a simple but secure OS that can hold some local data, but make it relevant to data centers and mobile operators around the world to provide the access. These two will soon merge and a respectable data plan on mobile phones, with these same phones providing a wireless mesh like availability, will be what we next see in an OS.
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    I sure hope that it doesn't move to a mobile cell phone based model as
    nothing would quicken a technological divide than that. As well I just don't
    see that platform as a truly functional computing base. Going from a 21" or
    higher monitor to a 3.5" viewscreen is just ludicrous IMO
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    Those who live in the first world have had it easy.. fast internet access, with decent laptops and desktops. In the third world, its the mobile phone that is making people communicate. The OLPC is a great concept, and with the new EeePC and other manufacturers creating low cost laptops, its only a matter of time before you will be using the phone to speak over something like Skype and chat with Messenger.. and then plug it in to a low cost machine for office apps.

    The kindle doesn't have a 3.5" screen, but has mobile access. All we need is a low cost LCD screen and keyboard, and the phone will hold the simple and secure OS.

    It might not be done for Windows 7, but the next gen after that will definitely be mobile based. Having the ability to carry your computer with you always, and only having to get hold of a screen and KB & Mouse will be what people will be looking for...

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