Microsoft is placing a lot of its hopes on the adoption of Vista as the main desktop for users worldwide; both at home and in the corporate world. However I think that with the release of Vista Microsoft for the first time in its OS history will see a decline in its marketshare of home and possible SOHO desktops.

There are several reasons why I believe this among which is the improvements to the Linux distros making it easier for the average user to get up to speed with. It still has a way to go but more and more users are beginning to see Linux as their viable desktop.

The second major reason for this possible trend away from Vista is Microsoft’s fault plain and simple. MS has always had a pretty screwed up way of versioning their OSes starting primarily with XP. With Vista though they have gone way overboard and are creating consumer confusion right across the board. This combined with their outrageous pricing schemes is causing even some of the diehard Window users to reconsider upgrading to Vista; or even leaving Windows behind for good.

My third reason while it may sound kind of strange I believe is a sound indicator of a shift away from Windows; whether it is a permanent move away only time will tell.

Most advocates of switching to the Mac platform will often site security reasons and the fact that Windows is nothing more than a rip off of Mac in the first place. This hyperbole in itself doesn’t indicate any real shift away from Windows there is one indicator that I believe does show this.

Over the last six months or so I have been noticing a fairly large increase in the number of Mac applications that are being made available on the USENET newsgroups. These might be cracked versions granted but the fact that  the number of them is on the rise tells me that a growing number of people are looking for Mac alternatives to Windows applications. I should note that I do not advocate the use of pirated software but I do out of habit from my development days watch for warezed versions of my old software, and a few clients as well.

Microsoft may have finally gone too far with its pricing and versioning of Vista; to the point that for the first time I really believe that people are seriously looking at their alternatives. At this time I think that Linux is still in the average user limbo land whereas the Mac is something that is on many more people’s radar. This combined with the increasing availability of pirated Mac software tells me that Vista could be in trouble and the Mac could be the big winner.

Conversation Tags: Microsoft, Linux, Apple, MAC, Vista, operating system